Analysis by Dr. Eliud Silva on trends and forecasts of air pollutants in the metropolitan area of Mexico City.
Dr. Eliud Silva, Academic and Researcher in the School of Actuarial Sciences at Anáhuac México University, shares analysis of trends and forecasts of atmospheric pollutants in the Mexican metropolitan region.
How does pollution develop?
This article examines the observed dynamics of some air pollutants in the so-called Mexico City metropolitan area (ZMCM). For this purpose, official data collected from monitoring units located in the municipalities of the State of Mexico and Mexico City are used. With this, their trends are appreciated, as are the expectations of each of them. The following pollutants were considered in the study: O3-ozone-, SO2- sulfur dioxide-, NO2- nitrogen dioxide-, carbon monoxide- carbon monoxide-, PM10- particles smaller than 10 microns-, PM2.5- Molecules less than 2.5 µm-, NO- NO- and NO- NO-. Since there is constant monitoring, only daily maximums for the period from 2008 to 2018 are taken into account.
Due to the variability of observations, i.e. the large variability shown by pollutants throughout the day, as well as the lack of data due to certain conditions of different types, smoothing becomes necessary. This roughly consists of omitting undesirable observations in order to estimate cardinal trends in air pollutants. To achieve this purpose, a statistical technique is used where the analyst is free to choose the appropriate degree of homogeneity and apply it to all data sets to be analyzed. From this strategy, estimates of trends are generated in a specific manner and time interval, as well as forecasts for each of them. Likewise, the technique allows valid comparisons to be made between different estimates.
When comparing the estimates made against the Mexico City Environmental Standard (NADF-009-AIRE-2017), it is possible to show that in general and despite the efforts made in this matter, it is far from good air. Quality in MCMA, excluding carbon dioxide and nitrogen dioxide. In fact, the forecast also indicates a move away from the permissible limits of Mexico City itself.
To read the full article, click here.
Dr. Eliud Silva, the author of this text, is a researcher in the Faculty of Actuarial Sciences of the University of Anáhuac México and a member of the National Scholars System (SNI) in Region I (Mathematical Physics and Geosciences).
Ramos-Ibarra, E. & Silva, E. Trends in estimation and prediction of atmospheric pollutants in the Mexico City metropolitan area through a non-parametric perspective. Atmósfera, vol. 33, Neem. 4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20937/ATM.52757
Anahuac . Research
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