The objectives of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund “exceeded” | The results of the analysis of the Faculty of Economics at UBA

The goals of Argentina’s agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been met for the first quarter, according to a report by the Study Center at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA) School of Economics. In light of the first review of the agreement, which will begin in the coming weeks with an IMF mission visit, the Study Center of the School of Economics at UBA conducted an analysis with the aim of monitoring the level of compliance with the targets set in the 30-month Facility Agreement signed by the government in March of this year.

The signing of the agreement was approved by Congress and the program he is considering has received support. board From the International Monetary Fund, although at the Executive Board meeting on March 25 objections were raised to the lack of proposals for structural reforms in the agreement. A requirement that will surely re-emerge during the negotiations that frame the following quarterly reviews.

The evaluative work of researchers from the UBA School of Economics focuses on the behavior of the objective variables indicated by the Fund in the agreement: the primary fiscal deficit, the monetary issue and international reserves. For each of them, the goals were set out in the agreement that the national government should meet each quarter.

The agreement provides for the disbursement of funds after each review, which constitutes the new Extended Facility Credit. The amount of each tranche of the new credit is tied to the maturities the national government must face to cancel the previous IMF credit, the amount given to the government of Mauricio Macri in 2018 for $44.5 billion.

See also  With new medical school guidance, according to MSP . sources

According to the index prepared by the FCE Study Center, “excessive compliance” with goals in the first quarter is 77%. As explained by its authors, this indicator is “the distance from the baseline scenario for compliance with the commitments made.” It represents the average percentage in which the government has exceeded the achievement of the goals set for each variable.

Looking at the results achieved in the first quadrant for each of the variables, the research indicates:

Primary disability. The agreed target in the agreement is 222,300 million pesos, but the initial result of the expense and income account shows a lower red: 192.735 million pesos. Thus, it was 13% lower than the proposed initial deficit limit. There was an “excessive commitment” to the target of 29,565 million pesos.

cash issue. The goal agreed in the agreement was for the central bank to respect this quarter a limit on transfers to treasury financing of 236,800 million pesos. But “the actual emission was 122 thousand million,” and “the target was achieved by a margin of 114,800 million pesos.” In terms of the index put by the study authors “48% excessive adherence”.

international reserves. The agreed goal was to accumulate $1,200 million in the quarter, during which period $4,061 million had been accumulated. “The target was reached by a margin of $2,861 million (238% higher than the assumed liability),” which was made possible by net payments by the International Monetary Fund, which provided funds to meet the April maturities and possibly with the organism itself. .

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.