The International Monetary Fund The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Latin American countries to close in 2022 with an average deficit of 4.7% relative to GDP.
The financial institution also expected in its “Financial Watch” report published this Tuesday, April 20, that the average deficit in the region will drop to 4.2% of GDP in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024.
Within the region, the fund anticipates significant changes for 2022, ranging from a projected 7.6% for Brazil to 1.5% for Chile, and 3.2% for Mexico; 3.8% for Argentina; 2.4% for Peru; 4.6% for Colombia; 2.7% for the Dominican Republic and 2.5% for Uruguay.
Forecasts for most Latin American countries are Much smaller deficit That in 2020 due to the end of the exceptional financial measures imposed by the pandemic and the return of Economic growth and therefore tax revenue.” Paul MauroDeputy Director of the Financial Affairs Department at the International Monetary Fund.
In terms of the weight of public debt in relation to GDP, International Monetary Fund She reports that this will reach an average of 71.7% in the region in 2022, and will remain stable around that number over the next five years.
Regarding the two largest economies in the region, the fund expects the debt/GDP ratio for Brazil to reach 91.9% this year and 58.4% for Mexico.
According to Mauro, the high inflation The unexpected situation in Latin America has helped lower the debt/GDP ratio in the short term in countries that are financed with their own currency, but the economist noted that it is not a feasible way to keep the accounts tidy in the long term.
Outside the Latin American region, the IMF expects the US to close 2022 with an overall deficit of 4.8%; Eurozone 4.3%; UK 4.3%; China 7.7%; Japan 7.8%; India is 9.9%.
In the case of Ecuador, the expectations of the multilateral is that Economy will grow 2.9% for 2022 and 2.7% for 2023. Last year, the agency estimated economic growth would reach 3.5%.
The IMF forecast is 0.1 point higher than that of the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE). The entity indicated last month that gross domestic product will grow by 2.8% this year.
However, the estimate is lower than the World Bank (WB), which forecast growth in Ecuador of 4.3%.
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