Geneva (EFE).- The global economy will grow by 2.4% in 2023, according to the economic outlook report issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), which raises its previous six-month forecast by three tenths. He warns of the risk of recession in Europe.
Moreover, by 2024, the UN agency expects a slight recovery in the global economy, which will grow by 2.5% according to its estimates.
Overall, UNCTAD warns that “growth has slowed in most regions compared to last year – when the economy grew by 3% – and only a few countries are bucking the trend,” including Mexico, Brazil, Russia, China and Japan.
On the Old Continent, the report warns that the European Union is “on the verge of recession” and revises its forecast from half a year ago even further: if it then expected the eurozone economy to grow by 0.7%, it is now lowering its forecast. This figure rises to 0.4%, when the increase in regional GDP reaches 3.4% in 2022.
The document expects some recovery in 2024, a year in which EU GDP growth will reach 1.2%, according to the report.
German recession
On the European continent, Germany will see its GDP fall by 0.6% in 2023, while there will be modest increases in France (0.9%), Italy (0.6%) and the UK (0.4%), and higher in Russia (2.2%). %), a country that may benefit from a comparison with last year’s weak numbers, when its economy declined by 2.1%, as it was more affected by sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine.
Experts from the UN agency say: “The stagnation or decline in real wages across the continent, coupled with fiscal austerity, is slowing growth.”
For America as a whole, UNCTAD forecasts economic growth of 2%, nine-tenths more than expected in April, thanks to important upward revisions in countries such as the United States, Mexico and Brazil, although it will slow to 1.8% in 2024. Key Regional Economy It is the United States (2% this year, 1.9% next year).
The report analyzes that “despite the increase in interest rates, the US economy has defied the most negative expectations, witnessing a moderate economic slowdown so far.”
UNCTAD attributes this resilience to strong consumer spending in the United States, the abandonment of financial austerity, and active monetary intervention to stop the crisis that some banks suffered at the beginning of the year.
In Latin America, the organization expects slightly higher growth of 2.3% (one point more than expected in April), then falling to 1.8% next year, although the situation in the region’s major economies will be very mixed.
Good forecast for Brazil
If its estimates for Mexico are progress of 3.2% this year and 2.1% next year, then in Argentina it expects a decline in GDP of 2.4% in 2023 and 0.6% in 2024; Brazil, for its part, will see a significant increase in its economy by 3.3% (2.4 points higher than estimates in April) and 2.3%, respectively.
As for China, the organization adjusts growth this year down by two-tenths (4.6%), although it expects it to accelerate to 4.8% next year, at a time when the Asian country shows “signs of recovery compared to 2022, but faces weakness in domestic consumption.” private demand and investment.”
“However, China has more fiscal policy space than other large economies to address these challenges,” believes UNCTAD, which in the case of neighboring Japan estimates progress in the national economy at 2.3% in 2023 and only 0.9% in 2024.
At the global level, UNCTAD recommends “institutional reforms to the global financial architecture, more realistic policies to address inflation, inequality and sovereign debt, as well as stronger supervision of key markets.”
Announcing the report, UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebecca Greenspan stressed that “in order to protect the global economy from future systemic crises, we must avoid the policy mistakes of the past and adopt a positive reform agenda.”
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