A Labor victory in the UK will have no impact on markets, according to JP Morgan AM

Palace of Westminster, in London (United Kingdom). Photo: Dominika Grigochova (Pixels).

The United Kingdom is scheduled to hold a general election on July 4. After the early elections announced by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Opinion polls predict a big victory for the Labor Party led by Keir StarmerAnd an unprecedented collapse of the Conservative Party.

“Opinion polls give Labour, currently in the opposition, a 20-point lead. For their part, the bookmakers said: They are 90% likely that their leader, Keir Starmer, will be the next prime minister.”points to JPMorgan’s asset management team in a recently published report on the impact of the election.

This is a victory for the Labor Party It could end 14 years of Tory-led governments. The manager’s analysts believe that the election result will not affect the financial markets. “In general – bearing in mind that both sides recognize financial constraints, that they are competing for political position, and that the leadership change indicated by the polls is very possible – The likelihood that the election outcome will have major repercussions on markets is low“They say.

In fact, the director thinks so The government change predicted by opinion polls could provide more stability to the country. “Although the potential change of government may not have major implications in monetary terms, it will happen Household and business confidence may improve given the perception that Labor will usher in a period of political stability.. They pointed out that the Conservatives’ defeat would mark the end of a period of 14 years in power and five prime ministers during which the leaders of the more centrist wing and the more right-wing sector of the party did not stop exchanging batons.

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Increased consumer confidence may boost the UK’s economic recovery. If the election results embody this perception of a long period of political stability, Consumers may be more willing to spend In this way, the Director pointed out, contributing to paving the way towards a more sustainable recovery of local activity.

This economic recovery in the UK could in turn boost British stocks. “Increasing confidence in the UK’s recovery could in turn lead to… And support UK stocks which have been sorely forgotten in recent years. “The FTSE All-Share Index is currently trading at a significant discount to the S&P 500,” they say.

Chart: JPMorgan AM.

If you would like to read the full report, you can do so here:


This content has been prepared in accordance with editorial standards and does not constitute an investment recommendation or suggestion. Investing contains risks. Past returns do not guarantee future returns.


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