Global economic growth prospects are facing a unique mix of headwinds, including the invasion of Ukraine, higher interest rates in major economies to contain inflation, and the ongoing effects of the pandemic, such as the lockdown in China and disruptions to supply chains.
Latest prospects for the global economy International Monetary Fund (IMF) It cut the global growth forecast for next year to 2.7%. “We expect countries that account for more than a third of global production to shrink during part of this year or the next,” they added from the International Monetary Fund.
Which is that there has been a continuous deterioration in the last months of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in many G-20 economies. This indicator is based on opinion polls that measure the momentum of manufacturing and services activity.
A growing share of the G20 nations of expansionary ground earlier this year fell to levels indicating contraction in recent months. It occurs both in advanced economies (such as the United States, Italy, Germany, or the United Kingdom) and in emerging markets (Turkey, South Africa or China), underscoring the global nature of the slowdown. Spain was one of the last developed countries to show signs of fatigue and deflationAccording to the chart.
While third-quarter GDP releases surprised to the upside in some major economies, October PMI releases point to weakness in the fourth quarter, particularly in Europe.
The macroeconomic policy environment is extraordinarily uncertain. Central banks continue to prioritize containing inflation, which is contributing to the cost-of-living crisis, hurting low-income and vulnerable groups the most. “These measures will continue to affect economic activity, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors, such as housing‘, defines the organism.
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