La Nation/Economic agents expect lower inflation and an initial cut in interest rates

The rapid convergence process that inflation is going through generates this period of the year Good prospects for economic agents, who have lowered their forecasts through the end of the year. At that, until now They are expecting the first cuts in the monetary policy rate (TPM) for the next month.

According to the August 2023 Economic Variables Expectations (EVE) survey, the average forecast for economic variables The monthly inflation rate was 0.2%, which is lower than the rate recorded in August 2022although a slight decrease from that indicated in the month of July than the current period. For September, agents expect monthly inflation of 0.3%.

In terms of annual inflation, which is constructed from the average monthly inflation forecast, it yields 3.1%. On the other side, The average inflation forecast announced by agents for the end of the year was 4.1%.lower than the 4.5% expected in the previous month.

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Proxies expect inflation to be closer to the target range by the end of 2023. Photo: Courtesy

With respect to the average economic growth forecast, Participants expect average GDP growth of 4.5%. for 2023 and 4.0% for 2024. These projections remain based on the forecasts given by the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP).

On the other hand, it is important to note that those surveyed, given the general improvement in the country’s economy, They expect the first cut in the monetary policy rate (TPM) for next month, setting it at 8.00 basis points.While this year they kept it at 8.50 points. By the end of 2023, they expect it to be at 7.25 basis points.

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With reference to the evolution of the exchange rate, The agents expected it for the month of August to close at 7,290 G., slightly lower than reported in the previous month. For the month of September, they expected the exchange rate to be 7,300 EGP. The level is also expected by the end of this year.

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