It has been eight years since the Republican Party surrendered to the arms of the system Trumpian populism Nothing seems to have improved. The passage of time has strengthened the purely fascist character of Trump's proposal – a charismatic leader whose actions are above the law, constantly searching for all kinds of foreign enemies, defending a threatened primitive society (America) and which necessarily ignores millions of citizens… – and does not seem to have diminished its popular support. Absolutely. Quite the opposite.
This relates, of course, to the appeal of brute force in a society where instantaneous action (direct action) increasingly dominates, but also The inability of the Democratic Party to formulate a response Minimal constitutional appeal. Barring unforeseen last-minute events, in November 2024, Trump's rival (78 years old at the time) will be around again. Joe Biden (He's about to turn 82 and with several episodes during his term raising questions about his health.)
American politics has stagnated, and this is very dangerous considering that the United States is still the standard bearer of the Western project. Trump almost had one Dozens of opponents In the Republican primaries, but none were significant enough to force public debate. Soufflé Ron DeSantis He collapsed shortly after reaffirming his position as Florida governor in the 2022 legislative elections. Mike Pencethe former vice president, never started at the polls. Nikki HaleyShe is a very strong candidate, and it seems that she will not have time to stand up to her boss in the previous administration.
On the Democratic Party side, it's more of the same. Or worse. As Obama's eight years ended, Democrats were torn between the two Hillary Clinton (69 years old at the time) and Bernie Sanders (75). After the failure of the first, they turned to Biden (78). In other words, they had eight years to find a candidate who was not yet at the end of his political career, but who shared voters' enthusiasm at the beginning. Bill Clinton, Barack Obama. no Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez Not to mention, Kamala Harris, the unpopular Vice President, took the step forward that was expected. Not even Pete Buttigieg.
Trump is ahead in the polls
No one will decide from the Biden admin that what happened next: He is sick of the pandemia, there are many notable emblems in the outside world – including here in the devastation of Afghanistan – they are in contact with their allies. all life. Biden has strengthened NATO has been shown Hostile to Russia, China and North KoreaThis is something that Trump has always dealt with with a certain randomness. However, his approval ratings are extremely low, the worst of any president, even lower than Donald Trump himself at the end of his third year in office.
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Democrats insist – perhaps rightly – that the upcoming election could be a milestone One before and one after In the history of the United States and its democracy. However, they chose an octogenarian and very poor candidate. Biden will be 86 years old at the end of his second term. Sometimes you have to make it easier for the voter. The latest polls put him three to four points behind Trump in the popular vote. This would mean a real march for Republicans in the distribution of electoral votes.
This is partly a new scenario for Trump. No elections before him entered the ballot box, neither in 2016 nor in 2020. A large part of his tactic was mobilization through heroism: silencing the mouths of those who believed he was already dead, and with him, the people died. MAGA movement. In any case, it is a worrying scenario. Regardless of ideology, a Trump victory would be terrible news for the world and the United States. Looking into the abyss can be fun, and a kind of aesthetic dizziness, but reality is something else…and the reality of four years of Trump’s rule calls for pessimism.
Anniversary of the attack on the Capitol building
First, we must see how he deals with power after he tried to maintain it by force on January 6, 2021. Trump He is accused of several thingsBut the recurring accusation is of trying to interfere in the most sacred process of all in democracy: the counting and verification of citizens' votes. Before sending an armed mob to prevent Biden from being declared the legitimate president of the United States, Trump tried all the political tricks his enormous power afforded him. It took the strong will and commitment of many men to the Constitution for it not to go its way.
It is understood that the new Trump administration will begin its term where it left off, i.e. in Trying to stay in power. Trump, 78, cannot aspire to many years in the White House, but he can completely twist the rules of the game so that the United States ceases to be a democracy and becomes a banana republic, while simultaneously choosing successors. And the complicit silence of other state authorities, often controlled by the Republican Party itself.
For now, Trump's only proposals pass through Fighting immigrationOn many occasions he espoused the theory of replacement, that is, a return to a mythical America that is not known whether it exists or not, but which would be distorted by values I wake up And the change in the racial balance of power, and the vague promises of tax cuts and economic revitalization, which, it must be emphasized, are not entirely catastrophic at the moment either.
Alliance with Putin
However, especially for us Europeans, a Trump victory would be a disaster Foreign Policy. For starters, Trump is a big fan Russian President Vladimir Putin. He wants to control his country like he controls Russia. He would like to be able to avoid opposition and control his opponents with a strong hand. Putin symbolizes brute power for Trump“Will to power”It will be said at other times in history – and it stops at nothing. In other words, Trump is keen to cooperate with Putin rather than fight him.
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It has often been clear that Trump is Putin's man Kremlin intervention In the 2016 and 2020 elections… and in the way Russian propagandists talk about the Republican candidate. They both share some collaborators responsible for the design and dissemination of this common discourse: e.g. Steve BannonWith one foot in Moscow and the other in Washington, OR Tucker CarlsonThe Trump journalist par excellence, who in turn loves the Russian issue.
If he comes to power, it makes sense for Trump to do the same thing as he did in his previous term: Weakening NATO as much as possible. Consequently, this would mean breaking the unity of action in the West, reducing support for Ukraine, and perhaps dooming it to an unfavorable truce. It is also unclear whether Trump is willing to protect the Baltic republics (part of NATO) or Poland, in case Putin's imperialism on the Ukrainian border is insufficient.
Chinese puzzle
It is also unclear what US policy will involve The Middle East – Trump abandoned the agreement with Iran regarding the controlled development of its nuclear program and ordered the withdrawal from Afghanistan, which would end months later in chaos with the atmosphere of Saigon – nor with regard to the Chinese giant. Here a strange circumstance occurs: Xi Jinping Putin is proud of their friendship, but Trump can't see it. He's afraid of him. Starting in 2025, China plans to activate the final phase of… Reunification with Taiwan. Will Trump be willing to defend the Chinese nationalists or will he step down? Impossible to guess.
It appears that a world in which Trump is in charge will be a world in which no one is watching. For Westerners, a more dangerous world. Despite his advanced age, Biden has increased his presence in various sources of conflict: He supported Zelensky without cracks And He mediated in PalestineAnd even antagonizing his old friend Netanyahu. He was able to understand who his allies were and stayed by their side. Trump does not understand “national interests,” he understands them “special interests”. Politics is often mixed with personal economic benefit, and evil intersects with good according to the opportunity.
Fortunately, exaggerated omens usually go nowhere. Trumpism is manipulating this matter as other populism has played throughout history. “Deep down, everything will stay the same”, “It's not as bad as they make it out”, “Those on the left have something for it”… and so on. However, what is at stake here is Liberal democracy Conservative parties also understand it. There is no ideology other than “order and orders”. A Biden victory will only postpone the problem, This is correct. But the problem is so big that it does not hurt to postpone it. Never in its entire history has the United States found itself faced with a dilemma of this magnitude, and it is not clear that it is in a position to solve it successfully.
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