UK removes doubts about low number of cases

Minister Dominic Raab justifies the quarantine for travelers from France for a beta variant in Reunion, the Indian island

The rapid decline in the recent numbers of cases of the virus in the United Kingdom has raised questions about its cause or how true it is. The new data suggests that the decline is real, albeit not as fast as it was ten days ago. The country’s grand opening experience is moving smoothly toward the announcement, next week, of controversial lists of countries with restrictions on tourists.

After two days of an increase in the daily numbers of positive cases provided by the National Health Service (NHS), on Friday they recorded a decrease again. Last week, the number of cases was -36.1% compared to the previous case, but this week’s swing suggests that the wobbly curve predicted by some scientists may already be in its first steps.

Evolution depends on the behavior of the British. The numbers, filtered by age, indicate that while the number of infections has decreased in other ranges, this week it has increased between 20-24. It’s the logical consequence of gatherings at discos and parties, on the first weekend after the famous “Freedom Day”, on July 19. The weather has also worsened and people are living in fewer outdoor spaces.

Doubts about the decline will be resolved through the weekly survey carried out by the Office for National Statistics. It does not measure daily recorded cases, like the NHS, but the level of coronavirus infection that is in the country. It is measured by PCR in a random sample of the British population designed as representative of the community.

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Data released on Friday indicates that the number of infected continued to grow in the week ending July 24. One in 65 citizens in England and Northern Ireland had the virus, one in 110 in Scotland and one in 160 in Wales. The proportions increased in three British countries, the exception being Scotland.

Harmonies

The ONS procedure counts the cases of those who may have been infected three weeks ago and the PCR test reveals their survival. This is late data and cannot be compared with respect to the NHS data, but it presents in its development a more accurate picture. Technicians from the Statistical Institute detected a decrease in the growth of sufferers at the end of the 24th week.

They added a measure of incidence, for new cases, and a curve away from that which plots the course of infection detected by PCR tests in the sample and follows the lower vertical pattern of cases detected by the NHS. This is likely to be a decline, but the impact of freewheeling will become more pronounced in the coming weeks.

“To isolate or not to isolate France” is the curious question. Foreign Minister Dominic Raab confirmed that the decision to maintain the quarantine requirement for travelers from France was based on the number of beta variable cases on Reunion Island, a French administration in the Indian Ocean. The egregious interference of politics in managing the virus is causing suspicions about other government figures or actions.

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