Sunak faces his first caucus as prime minister today: could it be his last?

In the United Kingdom there is no consensus when it comes to attributing the famous phrase to “A week in politics means a world.” Some believe Labour’s Harold Wilson first uttered the phrase during the sterling crisis in 1964. Others point to the Liberal Joseph Chamberlain in 1886. What is clear to both is that the phrase has never made so much sense. The last year. In just over two months, as many as three different prime ministers have passed through Downing Street.

The activity in the Conservative Party has been entertaining. In October 2022, Hardest Wing performer Liz Truss made her debut as a leader at the annual Formation Convention. He took power from Boris Johnson, who was forced to resign by his own ranks. But after the pound fell sharply due to the massive tax cuts that she made the centerpiece of her term, the transiting Truss was also forced to resign without even completing two months in office. That was when Rishi Sunak arrived, after a new primary process, very different from the general election.

Who was head of the treasury He will face his first Conservative Party conference as leader on Sunday. It could also be the latter. He has the difficult task of raising morale among the ranks and members and convincing voters that he is the Prime Minister they need. But the matter is very complicated because the Labor opposition is scoring more than 20 points in the opinion polls ahead of the general election due in 2024. The Conservative Party has shown an impressive capacity for renewal. But after more than thirteen years in power, everything indicates a change in times.

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It has been a great year for British politics. “We are almost a year away from what might euphemistically be called ‘the events that led me to become prime minister’,” Sunak joked last Thursday at the Westminster Correspondents’ Dinner, where he showed once again that his forte is not exactly great charisma. He prefers to present himself to citizens as A moderate and hardworking man Willing to talk through accomplishments. However, there is not much to celebrate.

Moreover, what has characterized him in recent weeks are notable deviations, as he abandoned the conservative promises made by his predecessors, claiming that they were impossible to implement because they were unrealistic. Package measures that Weaken the UK’s environmental commitments Reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 – such as delaying the ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars by five years, until 2035 – has been the most controversial. Boris Johnson’s claim that we can reach net zero emissions and enrich the country at the same time, without any negative impact on living standards, was another example of his populism. But blaming now the former executives, of whom he himself was a minister, may not be the best strategy.

It is another great project that Sunak has undertaken as well High-speed train – HS2- could be canceled To connect the British capital with major cities in northern England. The high cost, much higher than initially estimated, contradicts the doctrine of the person in charge of the treasury.

The problem is that canceling what is considered the largest infrastructure project in Europe It leaves his promise to end inequality between the north and south of England without credibilityThe famous “settlement”. Taking into account that the Conservative Party conference is being held in Manchester, everything takes on a greater dimension. It is also the north of England where the main areas of ‘red wall’ Which the Conservatives wrested from Labor in 2019 and which they are now fighting to keep.

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The definitive proof of Sunak’s weak leadership is that talk of his potential successor has already begun. He experienced that firsthand when his name continued to be heard in the final hours of Johnson’s term. Now the focus is on the Minister of the Interior, Suella Bravermana favorite of the hard-right core, who rejoiced at his recent speech in which he defended the fear of being discriminated against “because they are gay or a woman.” It should not serve as a “condition for asylum” Under the United Nations Refugee Convention.

Realizing that immigration is a priority issue for conservative voters, Braverman is betting on a tough stance. Moreover, it raises the possibility of abandoning the European Convention on Human Rights in a clear warning to the Strasbourg court not to derail its controversial plan to deport those who arrive via irregular routes to Rwanda. And His prominence makes Sunak smaller. In short, the week is politics and this week in particular could become an eternity for the current tenant of Number 10.

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