Now fears of a possible recession

The information was dominated last week by the central banks’ decision to raise interest rates, which had previously shown worrying data.

Now the markets are starting to warn Recession risks As a result of monetary tightening launched by many countries which will soon be joined by Eurozone countries.

According to the survey The Wall Street Journal among economists, There is a 44% chance that there will be a recession in the next 12 months While in April it was 28%. Another issue that will focus analysts’ attention is the impact of the new global context on emerging countries from the interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

Recession interest, according to Google Trends

Among the most relevant indicators and reports that will be known in the coming days, the following stand out:

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Monday 20

  • In China, monetary policy will be eased to boost the level of activity that has felt the impact of the restrictive measures adopted against Covid. In any case, the government’s target of 5.5% GDP growth this year seems out of reach.

Tuesday 21

  • US used home sales could have slowed in May as a result of the rise in mortgages from the Fed’s monetary policy tightening.

Wednesday 22

  • The UK CPI will have increased by 9.1% annually. The Bank of England itself assumes that inflation could exceed 11% this year.

Thursday 23

  • According to analysts, 225,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits were filed in the US in the week ending Saturday 20th. It is a historically low number, but it showed a slight upward trend for several weeks.
  • PMIs, detailed on the basis of information provided by corporate managers, will be published from the world’s largest economies.
  • Mexico’s inflation data for the first half of June will pave the way for the Bank of Mexico to raise the interest rate by 75 basis points in the afternoon and move it to 7.75%.
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Friday 24

  • The University of Michigan will release its Consumer Confidence Index in June.
  • In Brazil, the Expanded CPI-15 will be released, which measures inflation behavior during the second half of May and the first half of June. Analysts expect it to continue to show a slight downward trend as a result of the central bank’s strong monetary tightening.
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