Bloomberg – The former president of Brazil, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, has seen new support from a poll Show him he’s closer to winning the first round in next weekend’s election.
Lula’s voting intention has risen to 48% of the valid vote, according to an FSB poll published Monday. It’s one percentage point higher than the previous poll, and leaves it two points away from winning the first round. The current president, Jair Bolsonaro, remained unchanged, with a share of 37%.
Lula’s lead falls within the poll’s margin of error of 2 percentage points. However, recent polls show it is gaining momentum. Only 2% of voters consider themselves undecided, although an FSB investigation found that about 20 million voters could change their vote at the last minute.
“The number of voters who are still willing to change the decision to vote at this final stage is enough to change the panorama, which today refers to a second round.Marcelo Tokarsky, director of the polling company, wrote in a statement.
Candidates other than the current and former president received 14% of all voter preferences in the first round, according to the poll.
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After not participating in the last TV debate, Lula spent Sunday campaigning in Rio de Janeiro, the country’s second largest city and a support base for Bolsonaro, as part of a recent campaign to withdraw votes from the incumbent president.
But Andre Roman, director of AtlasIntel, warns that support for Lula, 76, may have reached its peak. The poll also put the former president at about 48% of support in the first round, according to a recent public opinion poll published last week.
Roman said in an interview that support for the third and fourth-place candidates, Ciro Gomez and Simon Tibet, was “collapse.” “What we’re seeing is the anguish over Lula’s win in the first round.”
Roman said Gomez, a former left-wing governor, winked at conservative voters, and that more of his supporters are now migrating to Bolsonaro. Although it is not a majority, “there is a large portion that opposes Lula”.
However, Atlas doubled Lula’s chances of winning in the first round, raising the odds to 30% from 15% a month earlier.
Analysts are closely watching how Brazilians will react to the final televised presidential debate scheduled for Thursday night. Both Bolsonaro, 67, and Lola said they would attend.
The FSB survey, commissioned by investment bank BTG Pactual, interviewed 2,000 Brazilians between September 23-25.
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