Written by Alfredo Serrano Manchela * -.
After defeat, there is always great interest in finding the culprits. However, more than names and titles, what really helps is an understanding of the multiple aspects of a complex political process such as the one in Ecuador. Here are some variants to understand why Andrés Arauz lost to Guillermo Lasso (photo) 47.5 vs. 52.5 percent.
1. As I wrote at the end of the first round, the moves that took place in October 2019 (against IMF measures taken by the Lenin Moreno government) continue to leave an indelible imprint on the Ecuadorian political scene: they rearranged them with clear electoral results . The Indigenous movement is formed as a topic relevant to politics and able to compete in electoral matters. In addition to the heterogeneity within it and the large disparities in the leadership, it is today the second force in the assembly and its presidential candidate, Yako Perez, has left 30,000 votes from going to the second round. This also had its correlation on the ballot: they called the white / null vote and passed (nearly 2 million white / null votes). Everything that happens in Ecuador from now on, yes or yes, must take into account what is happening within the indigenous movement and, of course, what might happen in the upcoming elections at the beginning of May. To the Presidency of Kunai (Federation of Indigenous Nationalities). It wouldn’t be as if Yaco Perez won as if Leonidas Eza won. If the second wins, the Lasso will face fierce opposition in the Aboriginal sector.
2. The campaign was important. And the presidential debate as well. Andres, Don’t Lie Again, which Lasso released to Arouse midway through the debate, was effective in terms of the compassionate and charismatic “Drop M,” which left the apparent frivolity, concealed a successful strategy: cutting Arouse’s credibility. In addition to this axis, Lasso manages to show himself as what he is not. He hardly spent time on his proposals. He avoided any possibility of distraction in his letters (they were repetitive even boring). He focused all his attention on “attracting” the majority of Xavier Hervas voters (who scored 16 points in the first round) and partly what the other candidates achieved (13 points). And he achieved it. In addition, he added a greater dose of epic to his campaign on the basis of “The Return”. This contrasts with Arouse’s campaign, which is more flatter and confident, and had two flaws: On the one hand, it was believed that the finish line had been reached after overcoming all hurdles to score the candidacy (due to everything he had suffered up to that time) rather than getting considered a starting point. On the other hand, the unexpected first round result left them paralyzed for more than a month. Downtime that cannot be easily regained in such a competitive election campaign.
3. The front is a real front only when it consists of different parts. You cannot make a couple with yourself. Coresmo tried, but was not able to achieve it at any time. From the start, this idea, the need to expand, was not entirely real and sincere. The relic of Lenin’s betrayal was an impediment to this goal. Lack of confidence always goes against the desire to add new actors. Correísmo ended up in essence and that was enough to be the first force in the first round, but not to win the second round.
4. Unpaid relay game. Succession is not a trivial matter, neither in life nor in politics. It is an issue within progressive Latin America in the twenty-first century that still has little sample to draw strong conclusions. He did each operation his own way: Cristina with Alberto, Evo with Ars, and in the case of the Ecuadorian we were in the second round, Correa with Arawes. This is a stage full of complications because it is not exempt from the pseudo-Gramscian dialectics, because the unified leadership coexists with another in the birth stage. If this happens at election time, everything becomes more difficult. And it doesn’t always work out. This time, given the promises, it was not as virtuous as it could have been.
5. The double edge of the law. there was. Coresmo suffered to the extreme. Correa could not appear as a candidate and many legal cases were opened with and without judgment, but all without foundation. In addition, a large portion of its leaders are exiled, and almost all of them are prosecuted. All this happened, although it is not possible to explain everything based on this process. If one of the issues (in this case, legal war) is a monopoly argument, there is a risk of inflating it, believing that everything, absolutely everything, can be explained from this point of view. Insist Lawfare, yes, it is a matter of great importance, but by looking at it in a one-way fashion, it can atrophy the ability to notice the polyhedra of a phenomenon. (Incidentally, detail: Citizens, in general, do not eat legal breakfast.)
6. The influence of Lenin. As paradoxical as it may sound, a remarkable percentage of citizens still blame Korea for the infamous Moreno government. It is a paradox that President Moreno ruled jointly with Laso and persecuted Coresmo indefinitely. However, there was a majority of voters who assumed that Lenin was, in part, a “continuity” of the Coresmo.
7. Do we know the poor class? The term middle class can be useful in a geographical area and historical moment. But it doesn’t always work. If it is used excessively, it is very likely that a big mistake will be made: disharmony with the ambitious logic of the majority, with their shared senses, with their dominant language and symbols. It is possible that some of this happened in Ecuador: Arouse was concerned about this population but, instead, failed to communicate with them to allow him to win the election.
Several other variables are needed to understand why Ecuadorian citizens choose to elect a banker as president (media, inconsistency in advertising spending, etc.). Everything will be decisive in what comes from now on. Lasso won the election in this second round, but his future will be largely conditioned on whether he ends up with “Macri’s disease,” that is, his belief that his political strength is commensurate with the votes he received in the second round. Confusing your own and your borrowed voices leads to you overestimating yourself, making you want to rule as if you had a majority. Nor. Lasso is the fifth powerhouse by number of seats in the Legislative Council, and nearly 9 out of 10 did not vote for him in the first round (he received only 15 percent of the total vote), possibly because he did not want an ordinary neoliberal. Government plan.
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