Prediction markets see near-even odds of a fresh leg down for bitcoin after the Federal Reserve's latest hike, even as ETF inflows hold up.
Bitcoin (LSE: BTC) traders on prediction platform Polymarket are pricing a 51% chance the token falls to $75,000 at some point before 30 September 2026, after the token slipped to around $77,000 on Friday, more than a third below its October 2025 record high near $126,000.
The move follows this week's Federal Reserve decision to lift its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with policymakers signalling one more hike could land before the end of 2026 and ruling out rate cuts until 2027, a hawkish tone that has hit risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin briefly touched roughly $75,240 in the immediate aftermath of the Fed announcement, underlining how sensitive the token remains to shifts in US monetary policy. Higher rates make lower-risk assets more attractive and typically strengthen the dollar, both of which tend to weigh on speculative markets such as crypto.
Despite the pullback, US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in around $987 million of net inflows in early September, a sign that institutional appetite for the asset has not evaporated even as the price retreats from its highs. Polymarket's wider odds, a 70% chance of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 and only an 18% chance of hitting $85,000 before the end of September, point to traders expecting choppy, two-way price action rather than a clean trend in either direction.
With bitcoin already hovering close to the $75,000 level bettors are watching, the next few weeks are likely to be dictated by incoming Fed commentary and broader risk sentiment. Investors should note the Polymarket odds are specific to the remainder of September 2026 and do not represent longer-term price forecasts, leaving plenty of room for the numbers to shift again before the deadline.
This report is based on Bitcoin’s announcement and coverage by Share Talk. Company announcements can be tracked via London Stock Exchange RNS and Investegate, and the full results calendar is worth watching for the next update.
This article is for general information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Photo: André François McKenzie on Unsplash.
Small Cap News covers London’s junior market – AIM, small-cap and growth companies – with concise, sourced reporting on the results, deals and regulatory news that move share prices. We track the stories private investors actually need, from contract wins and drilling updates to fundraises and half-year figures, straight from the market’s own announcements.